Executive Summary
This report provides a market forecast for 2009, highlighting the major issues among the three Korean mobile operators, SKT, KTF and LGT, including subscriber growth, churn rate, average revenue per user, and CAPEX as well as competition over the rival network technologies, CDMA and WCDMA.
In 2008, Korea's mobile subscriber base reached 45.61 million with the estimated penetration rate of 93.4%. ROA Holdings forecasts that the increase in subscribers will slow down and become stagnant to reach 46.8 million (penetration rate of 96%) in 2009.
In 2009, the ratio of WCDMA users is forecast to reach 57.3% (a 62.4% year-on-year increase), which will exceed that of CDMA users for the first time. Still, CDMA users account for a great share and will maintain a certain level by 2011.
With more than 90% of total population now using mobile phones in South Korea, it can be concluded that the strategy of focusing on quantitative growth does not work anymore. In this situation, a greater attention is being paid to new rate plans based on subscription commitment as well as how to provide monetary value to the customers in a differentiated manner. In 2009,
each operator is expected to implement differentiated strategies based on qualitative change. In addition, competition among market players in releasing bundled products will accelerate after the merger of KT and KTF.
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